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04/09/2009 - Detroit, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Joel Ward scored the equalizer with 59.3 seconds left in regulation and Jason Arnott had the deciding goal in the shootout, as Nashville stayed in the playoff race with a key 4-3 win over Detroit.
With the win, the Predators pulled into a tie with Anaheim and St. Louis with 88 points, as all three teams are in position for the final two playoff spots. The Ducks are currently in the seventh position and the Blues are in eighth, but both were idle Thursday and have a game at hand over Nashville.
Nevertheless, the comeback win was a big one for Nashville, which won the season series against Detroit for the first time in franchise history. The Predators took four of six games from the Red Wings this season, including three in a row -- the last two at Detroit.
Arnott finished with a goal and assist for the Predators, who have won two of three, with both victories coming in a shootout. Scott Nichol also lit the lamp, while Pekka Rinne made 23 saves.
Nicklas Lidstrom, Niklas Kronwall and Johan Franzen had the goals for Detroit, which had won two in a row. The Red Wings got a point in the loss, but at 112 total are no longer in contention for the top seed in the West, as they trail San Jose by five with just two games to play. The Sharks host Phoenix later Thursday.
Chris Osgood stopped 22 shots in the loss.
Detroit held a 3-1 lead after Franzen sent a shot from the slot past Rinne by the left post just 2:12 into the third period.
But Nashville got back within a goal with 6:42 remaining, when Arnott got the rebound off his own shot and sent it over a sprawled Osgood.
The Predators' chances of winning took a hit when Arnott was called for holding with 4:05 remaining, but Kronwall was whistled for tripping with 2:52 to play. The teams played 4-on-4 until Arnott's penalty ran out, with the Red Wings getting a great scoring chance almost immediately after the faceoff. However, Rinne stuffed the shot and eventually Nashville went on the power play.
With a little over a minute to play, Rinne skated off, giving the Predators a 6-on-4. Nashville's attackers flooded the Detroit zone, and Ryan Jones took a shot from the right side. The puck fluttered into the slot, where Arnott took a whack at it. Ward followed with another swing to get it past Osgood with 59.3 ticks left to tie the contest.
Nashville got another power play with 43.2 left in overtime, but Detroit killed it off to send the contest to a shootout.
Detroit's Jiri Hudler was the fifth shooter and scored on a snap shot between Rinne's pads. However, in a do-or-die chance, Ville Koistinen scored top shelf on a backhander to send it to a fourth round.
Rinne stopped Dan Cleary's forehand chance before Arnott scored five hole to give Nashville the win.
Kronwall got Detroit on the board with a power play goal 11:50 into the first period. However, Nichol's shot from the right circle at 6:18 of the middle frame evened the score.
Lidstrom tipped in a shot on the power-play with 32.7 ticks left in the second to give the Red Wings the 2-1 edge.
Game Notes
Nashville closes out its regular season Friday at Minnesota...Detroit plays a home-and-home set with Chicago over the weekend to close the season...The Red Wings were 2-for-4 on the power play, while Nashville went 1-for-6 with the man advantage.
<< Panthers win, but are eliminated from playoff picture
Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - David Booth scored the game-winner with under
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Florida began the night two poin
<< Capitals double-up Lightning
Tampa, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brooks Laich scored twice and Mike Green
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the Tampa Bay Lightning, 4-2, at St. Pete Times Forum.
David Steckel also tallied
<< Lundqvist helps Rangers clinch playoff spot, down Flyers
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Henrik Lundqvist stood tall down the stretch
and finished with 37 saves to help the New York Rangers clinch a playoff spot
for the fourth straight year with a 2-1 victory over Philadelphia at
Madison
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San Francisco, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bengie Molina drove in four runs in San
Francisco's 7-1 thumping of Milwaukee -- a game overshadowed when a rocket off
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Devils clinch Atlantic in shootout win over Senators >>
Ottawa, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brendan Shanahan scored the shootout winner, and
the New Jersey Devils wrapped up the Atlantic Division title in a 3-2 win
against the Ottawa Senators at Scotiabank Place.
The Devils needed just a point to
Lakers' Bynum returns to action >>
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Andrew Bynum is back, and not a second
too soon for the Lakers as the playoffs near.
Bynum stepped foot onto the floor in game action during the first quarter of
Los Angeles' game against Denver on
Bulls draw closer to playoffs with thumping of Philadelphia >>
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tyrus Thomas and Ben Gordon each scored 24
points as Chicago inched closer to a playoff berth with a 113-99 victory over
slumping Philadelphia.
Derrick Rose added 16 points and eight assists, Brad Mille
Miami-Ohio and Boston University advance to Frozen Four final >>
Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tommy Wingels registered two goals and an
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Alden Hirschfeld and Bill Loupee also tallied fo
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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