Brewers vie to stay hot against Pirates

Baseball Betting Lines

07/20/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - One day after starter Chris Capuano earned his first victory in over three years, the Milwaukee Brewers will try to extend their series winning streak over the Pittsburgh Pirates to six games this evening in the second contest of a four-game series at PNC Park.

Capuano took the hill in last night's opener and made his first start since June 3. He gave up one run -- a run-scoring triple by Ronny Cedeno -- on three hits over five innings to notch his first victory since May 7, 2007, snapping a 13-decision losing streak with a 3-1 triumph.

"I have a long view, a long perspective of baseball," said Capuano, who missed all of 2008 and 2009 recovering from Tommy John surgery. "I knew that I would eventually get more wins, but I'm just really happy I could get one with the Brewers, with this team."

Jeff Karstens didn't pitch poorly in defeat for the Pirates, holding the Brewers to just three hits. However, one was a solo home run by Prince Fielder, his National League-leading 23rd long ball of the season, and another a two-run homer by Rickie Weeks.

"I felt I had a really good rhythm, throwing strikes," Karstens said. "When I got ahead I was expanding the zone a little bit, making them chase."

John Axford secured the victory for the Brewers and Capuano with a scoreless ninth inning, earning his 12th save and Milwaukee's sixth victory in its last eight games overall.

Weeks has three homers in his last two games and is batting .400 (10-for-25) over a six-game hitting streak with seven RBI. He has a hit in both of his career at-bats versus Pirates rookie Brad Lincoln, who is 0-1 in two starts since winning his first MLB game on June 30.

The fourth overall pick of the 2006 draft, Lincoln has yielded eight runs over his last 11 innings. That includes a no-decision versus the Brewers on July 11 in which he gave up three runs on seven hits, including homers by Ryan Braun and George Kottaras, over six innings of a 6-5 setback in his first career start versus Milwaukee.

The 25-year-old righty is 1-3 with a 5.14 earned run average on the season and 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA over his first two career home starts.

Lincoln's Pirates could be without center fielder and leadoff hitter Andrew McCutchen after he sat out Monday's game due to a right shoulder injury suffered on Sunday versus Houston. Without McCutchen, Pittsburgh failed to secure a third straight win and lost for the eighth time in its last 10 games.

The Pirates have lost nine of 12 to the Brewers this year, including five of six at home, and will try to snap Dave Bush's streak of six straight starts having allowed two runs or fewer.

Bush is pitching to a 2.39 ERA in that span and beat the Pirates on July 10, holding them to two runs over 6 1/3 innings. The right-hander also recorded a win at PNC Park on April 20 with seven shutout innings and is 5-4 with a 4.28 ERA lifetime against the Pirates.

The 30-year-old, who was born in Pittsburgh, lost to the Braves last time out on Thursday despite giving up just two solo homers and seven hits total in six innings of a 2-1 setback. Bush fell to 4-7 on the season with a 4.07 ERA.

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.